Four Possible Scenarios for an American Attack on Iran According to Israeli Analysis

An Israeli writer for The Jerusalem Post has outlined four primary possibilities for U.S. military action against Iran. This analysis, published by the newspaper, anticipates developments in Iran’s nuclear file should negotiations stall.

Background of the Political Analysis

Context of International Expectations

These projections emerge amid the current deadlock in nuclear negotiations. Political analysis suggests the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump might adopt a military strike option if Tehran continues advancing its nuclear program.

Sources of Strategic Analysis

The writer based conclusions on intelligence reports and analyses by Iranian affairs experts. The scenarios focused on the most probable timings and circumstances for American action.

Scenario One: Preemptive Strike

Timing of Potential Attack

The first possibility involves a preventive attack before the end of Trump’s current term. This might occur if Iran demonstrates accelerated uranium enrichment.

Specific Strike Targets

The operation would target key nuclear facilities and research centers. The plan would rely on precision airstrikes using advanced aircraft to minimize risks.

Scenario Two: Response to Provocations

Escalation by Loyalist Militias

Confrontation could erupt in response to attacks by Iran-backed groups. This includes targeting U.S. forces in Iraq or maritime assaults in the Strait of Hormuz.

Limits of Military Confrontation

Washington wouldn’t take comprehensive measures but would limit responses to targeted actions. These might involve destroying military facilities or commanders in the Quds Force without ground invasion.

Scenario Three: After Negotiations Collapse

Failure of Diplomatic Path

This option would activate if parties formally declare the nuclear talks a failure. It would be followed by unprecedented sanctions as a first phase.

Intensified Military Pressure

The U.S. would begin mobilizing additional forces in the region as a final warning. A limited attack might be launched if Tehran ignores international warnings.

Scenario Four: After 2024 Elections

Impact of Election Results

This possibility hinges on Trump winning a new presidential term. This would grant him greater freedom to make decisive military decisions without electoral pressures.

Development of Offensive Capabilities

Washington would use the transition period to develop more complex attack plans. These might include cooperation with regional allies to simultaneously strike multiple targets.